Prediction Markets
Predinex offers two distinct types of prediction markets designed to serve different use cases and user preferences. Our dual-market approach ensures both automated reliability and community-driven flexibility.
🎯 Market Types Overview
| Feature | Guided Markets | Open Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Outcome Source | External APIs | Community Consensus |
| Resolution Speed | Instant | 24-48 hours |
| Data Reliability | Very High | High (with disputes) |
| Market Variety | Sports, Crypto | Unlimited |
| User Participation | Pool Creation + Liquidity | Pool Creation + Outcome Proposals |
| Fees | Standard | Higher (oracle costs) |
🎲 How Predinex Pools Work
Important: Predinex uses a unique contrarian pool structure that's different from traditional prediction markets. Understanding this is crucial:
The Pool Structure Explained
🏗️ Pool Creator (The Contrarian)
- Creates a pool by specifying what they think is UNLIKELY to happen
- Stakes their own money AGAINST this outcome occurring
- Wins if their predicted outcome does NOT happen
- Loses if their predicted outcome actually happens
🎯 Bettors (The Believers)
- Bet FOR the creator's predicted outcome to happen
- Think the creator is wrong and the outcome WILL occur
- Win if the predicted outcome happens (get creator's money)
- Lose if the predicted outcome doesn't happen
💰 Liquidity Providers (LPs)
- Join the creator's side by adding liquidity
- Also betting AGAINST the predicted outcome
- Share wins/losses proportionally with the creator
📖 Example: Football Match Pool
Let's walk through a concrete example:
🏆 Pool: "Chelsea beats Fulham"
Creator: Alice (thinks Chelsea WON'T win)
Alice stakes: 100 BNB against Chelsea winning
Odds: 1.5x (meaning 50 BNB max can be bet on Chelsea winning)
👥 Participants:
- Bob bets 30 BNB FOR Chelsea winning
- Carol bets 20 BNB FOR Chelsea winning
- Dave (LP) adds 50 BNB AGAINST Chelsea winning (joins Alice's side)
💰 Total Pool: 200 BNB
- Against Chelsea: 150 BNB (Alice: 100 + Dave: 50)
- For Chelsea: 50 BNB (Bob: 30 + Carol: 20)
Scenario 1: Chelsea wins
- Predicted outcome happened → Bettors win, Creator/LPs lose
- Bob gets: 30 × 1.5 = 45 BNB (minus platform fee)
- Carol gets: 20 × 1.5 = 30 BNB (minus platform fee)
- Alice loses: her 100 BNB
- Dave loses: his 50 BNB
Scenario 2: Fulham wins (or draw)
- Predicted outcome didn't happen → Creator/LPs win, Bettors lose
- Alice gets: 100 BNB back + (50 × 100/150) = 133.33 BNB
- Dave gets: 50 BNB back + (50 × 50/150) = 66.67 BNB
- Bob loses: his 30 BNB
- Carol loses: her 20 BNB
🔮 Guided Markets
Automated prediction markets powered by verified external data sources.
How Guided Markets Work
- Pool Creation: Users create pools for events they think are unlikely
- Data Integration: Markets are linked to SportMonks/CoinGecko APIs
- Automatic Settlement: Oracles resolve outcomes instantly when data is available
- Instant Payouts: Winners receive rewards immediately after settlement
Supported Data Sources
⚽ Sports Markets (via SportMonks API)
- Football/Soccer: Premier League, La Liga, Champions League, World Cup
- Basketball: NBA, EuroLeague, NCAA
- American Football: NFL, College Football
- Tennis: ATP, WTA, Grand Slams
- Other Sports: Hockey, Baseball, Cricket, Rugby
Market Types Available:
- Match Outcomes: Home Win, Draw, Away Win
- Over/Under Goals: 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5+ goals
- Both Teams to Score: Yes/No
- Half-time Results: First half outcomes
- Correct Score: Exact final score predictions
💰 Crypto Markets (via CoinGecko API)
- Price Predictions: Will BTC reach $100K by year-end?
- Market Cap Rankings: Will ETH flip BTC?
- New Listings: Will [Token] get listed on major exchanges?
- DeFi Metrics: Will TVL reach certain milestones?
- NFT Collections: Floor price predictions
Guided Market Benefits
✅ Instant Settlement - No waiting for community consensus
✅ 100% Reliable Data - Verified external sources
✅ Lower Fees - No oracle bonding required
✅ High Liquidity - Multiple LPs can join creator's side
✅ Broad Coverage - Thousands of events monthly
Example: Creating a Football Pool
🏆 Manchester United vs Liverpool
📅 Sunday, December 15, 2024 - 16:30 UTC
🔮 Data Source: SportMonks API
Alice creates pool: "Manchester United wins"
- Alice thinks Man Utd is UNLIKELY to win
- Stakes 200 BNB against Man Utd winning
- Sets odds at 2.0x (allows 100 BNB max bets for Man Utd)
Available for bettors:
- Bet FOR Man Utd winning (if you think Alice is wrong)
- Max total bets: 100 BNB
- Payout if Man Utd wins: 2.0x your bet
Auto-settlement: 90 minutes after final whistle
🗳️ Open Markets
Community-driven prediction markets for unlimited event types.
How Open Markets Work
- Market Creation: Users create pools for any custom event
- Event Resolution: Community proposes what actually happened
- Optimistic Oracle: Outcomes are disputed/validated by community
- Settlement: Pools resolve based on community consensus
Optimistic Oracle System
📝 Proposal Phase (24 hours)
- Anyone can propose the actual outcome by staking tokens
- Proposals are assumed correct unless challenged
- Multiple outcomes can be proposed
⚖️ Challenge Phase (24 hours)
- Community can dispute by staking more tokens
- Challengers must provide evidence
- Economic incentives align with truth-telling
🏆 Resolution Phase
- If unchallenged: Original proposal accepted
- If challenged: Community voting determines outcome
- Winners get their stake back + portion of losers' stakes
Open Market Categories
🏛️ Politics & Governance
- Election outcomes and polling predictions
- Policy decisions and referendum results
- Political appointments and confirmations
- Regulatory decisions and timelines
📈 Business & Finance
- Corporate earnings and revenue forecasts
- Merger & acquisition predictions
- Product launch success metrics
- Stock price movements and milestones
🌍 World Events
- Climate and weather predictions
- Geopolitical developments
- Scientific breakthroughs and discoveries
- Entertainment and cultural events
🎮 Gaming & Esports
- Tournament outcomes and player performance
- Game release dates and success metrics
- Streaming platform statistics
- Virtual world events and economies
Economic Incentives
💰 Reward Structure
- Correct Proposers: Get stake back + 50% of challenger stake
- Successful Challengers: Get stake back + 50% of proposer stake
- Voters (if disputed): Receive 10% of total disputed amount
- Platform: Takes 5% fee on disputed amounts
🛡️ Anti-Spam Mechanisms
- Minimum Stake: 100 PRIX tokens to propose outcomes
- Reputation Requirements: Higher thresholds for sensitive topics
- Cooling Periods: Limits on proposal frequency per user
Example: Custom Market
🗳️ Will Apple announce a VR headset in Q1 2025?
Sarah creates pool: "Apple announces VR headset in Q1 2025"
- Sarah thinks this is UNLIKELY to happen
- Stakes 500 BNB against the announcement
- Sets odds at 3.0x
Resolution Method: Optimistic Oracle
- Community will propose actual outcome after Q1 2025
- Verified by official Apple announcements/press releases
- Disputed outcomes resolved by community voting
Available for bettors:
- Bet FOR Apple announcement (if you think Sarah is wrong)
- Max total bets: ~167 BNB
- Payout if Apple announces: 3.0x your bet
🚀 Pool Creation Guide
Step-by-Step Process
-
Choose Your Contrarian Position
- Pick an outcome you think is UNLIKELY to happen
- Remember: You profit when your prediction doesn't occur
-
Set Pool Parameters
- Stake Amount: How much you're willing to risk
- Odds: Higher odds = more confident the outcome won't happen
- Max Bet Per User: Optional limit on individual bets
-
Deploy Pool
- Pay 1 BNB creation fee + your stake amount
- Pool appears in platform listings
- Others can join your side as LPs or bet against you
-
Attract Participants
- Market your contrarian view
- Share analysis of why outcome is unlikely
- Wait for believers to bet against your position
Pool Parameters Explained
🎯 Odds Setting
- 1.5x odds: You think outcome has ~33% chance
- 2.0x odds: You think outcome has ~50% chance
- 3.0x odds: You think outcome has ~67% chance
- Higher odds: More confident outcome won't happen
💰 Stake Calculation
Your stake determines maximum bets against you:
- At 2.0x odds: Max bets = Your stake ÷ 1
- At 3.0x odds: Max bets = Your stake ÷ 2
- At 4.0x odds: Max bets = Your stake ÷ 3
📊 Market Mechanics & Fees
Pool Economics
💰 Fee Structure
- Creation Fee: 1 BNB per pool
- Platform Fee: 5% on bettor winnings (reduced with PRIX holdings)
- Oracle Fee: Additional 2% for open markets
- No Fees: Creators and LPs don't pay fees on winnings
🏦 Liquidity Provision
- Join Creator's Side: Add liquidity to bet against predicted outcome
- Proportional Rewards: Share winnings based on your contribution
- Early Withdrawal: Possible before events start (if no opposing bets)
⚖️ Risk Management
- Maximum Pool Size: 1M tokens per pool
- Maximum Bet: 100K tokens per individual bet
- Reputation Gating: Higher-reputation users get better terms
- Pool Limits: Maximum 500 participants per pool
Why This Structure Works
🧠 Psychological Benefits
- Contrarian Rewards: Profit from being right about unlikely events
- Market Efficiency: Contrarians provide valuable price discovery
- Reduced Bias: Forces creators to really think if outcome is unlikely
💡 Strategic Advantages
- Better Odds: Contrarians often spot overvalued outcomes
- Market Making: Creators provide liquidity for underrepresented views
- Knowledge Rewards: Domain experts profit from superior analysis
Understanding this contrarian structure is key to success on Predinex. Creators make money by correctly identifying what WON'T happen, while bettors profit by spotting when creators are wrong.