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Pool Examples & Scenarios

Understanding Predinex's contrarian pool structure is easier with concrete examples. Here are real scenarios showing how different outcomes affect all participants.

🏆 Example 1: Football Match Pool​

Pool Setup​

🎯 Pool: "Liverpool beats Arsenal" 
Creator: Sarah (thinks Liverpool WON'T win)
Sarah's contrarian bet: 200 BNB against Liverpool winning
Odds set: 2.0x
Maximum bets allowed: 100 BNB total

📊 Participants:
- Sarah (Creator): 200 BNB AGAINST Liverpool
- Mike (LP): 100 BNB AGAINST Liverpool (joins Sarah's side)  
- Tom (Bettor): 60 BNB FOR Liverpool winning
- Lisa (Bettor): 40 BNB FOR Liverpool winning

💰 Total Pool: 400 BNB
- Against Liverpool: 300 BNB (Sarah: 200 + Mike: 100)
- For Liverpool: 100 BNB (Tom: 60 + Lisa: 40)

Scenario A: Liverpool Wins 2-1​

Result: Predicted outcome happened → Bettors win, Creator/LP lose

Payouts:

  • Tom gets: 60 × 2.0 = 120 BNB (minus 5% platform fee = 114 BNB)
  • Lisa gets: 40 × 2.0 = 80 BNB (minus 5% platform fee = 76 BNB)
  • Sarah loses: All 200 BNB
  • Mike loses: All 100 BNB

Total winnings: Bettors get 190 BNB, Platform gets 10 BNB fee

Scenario B: Arsenal Wins 1-0​

Result: Predicted outcome didn't happen → Creator/LP win, Bettors lose

Payouts:

  • Sarah gets: 200 BNB back + (100 × 200/300) = 266.67 BNB
  • Mike gets: 100 BNB back + (100 × 100/300) = 133.33 BNB
  • Tom loses: All 60 BNB
  • Lisa loses: All 40 BNB

Total winnings: Creator/LP split the 100 BNB from bettors proportionally

💰 Example 2: Crypto Price Pool​

Pool Setup​

🪙 Pool: "Bitcoin reaches $120,000 by Dec 31, 2024"
Creator: Alex (thinks BTC WON'T reach $120k)
Alex's contrarian bet: 500 BNB against BTC hitting $120k
Odds set: 4.0x (very confident it won't happen)
Maximum bets allowed: 166 BNB total

📊 Participants:
- Alex (Creator): 500 BNB AGAINST BTC reaching $120k
- Emma (Bettor): 100 BNB FOR BTC reaching $120k  
- David (Bettor): 66 BNB FOR BTC reaching $120k

💰 Total Pool: 666 BNB
- Against BTC $120k: 500 BNB (Alex only)
- For BTC $120k: 166 BNB (Emma: 100 + David: 66)

Scenario A: Bitcoin Hits $125,000​

Result: Predicted outcome happened → Bettors win big

Payouts:

  • Emma gets: 100 × 4.0 = 400 BNB (minus 5% fee = 380 BNB)
  • David gets: 66 × 4.0 = 264 BNB (minus 5% fee = 250.8 BNB)
  • Alex loses: All 500 BNB

Alex's lesson: Being overconfident with 4.0x odds was risky!

Scenario B: Bitcoin Peaks at $118,000​

Result: Predicted outcome didn't happen → Creator wins big

Payouts:

  • Alex gets: 500 BNB back + 166 BNB from bettors = 666 BNB
  • Emma loses: All 100 BNB
  • David loses: All 66 BNB

Alex's reward: 33% return for correctly predicting market wouldn't reach $120k

🎮 Example 3: Custom Event Pool​

Pool Setup​

📺 Pool: "Netflix announces gaming console at CES 2025"
Creator: Rachel (thinks this is very unlikely)
Rachel's contrarian bet: 300 BNB against Netflix console announcement
Odds set: 5.0x (extremely confident)
Maximum bets allowed: 75 BNB total

📊 Participants:
- Rachel (Creator): 300 BNB AGAINST Netflix announcement
- Gaming enthusiasts: 75 BNB total FOR Netflix announcement

Resolution: Optimistic Oracle (community decides outcome)

Scenario A: Netflix Announces "Netflix GameBox"​

Result: Unlikely event actually happened!

Payouts:

  • Gaming enthusiasts get: 75 × 5.0 = 375 BNB (minus fees)
  • Rachel loses: All 300 BNB

Lesson: Even 5.0x odds events can happen - that's why they pay so much!

Scenario B: Netflix Announces Movies Only​

Result: No gaming console announced → Creator wins

Payouts:

  • Rachel gets: 300 BNB back + 75 BNB = 375 BNB
  • Gaming enthusiasts lose: All 75 BNB

Rachel's return: 25% profit for correctly identifying overvalued speculation

📈 Strategy Examples​

For Creators (Contrarians)​

✅ Good Contrarian Bets​

  • Upset victories in sports (favorite teams losing)
  • Overhyped crypto events not happening
  • Celebrity/politician predictions that seem too good to be true
  • Weather events that media sensationalizes

❌ Bad Contrarian Bets​

  • Obvious outcomes everyone knows (sun will rise tomorrow)
  • Events you have no knowledge about
  • Emotional bets against teams/assets you dislike
  • Setting odds too high out of overconfidence

For Bettors (Believers)​

✅ Good Bets Against Creators​

  • When creators seem emotionally biased
  • Events you have specialized knowledge about
  • Creators with poor track records
  • Odds that seem too generous

❌ Bad Bets​

  • Betting against successful contrarians
  • FOMO betting without research
  • Betting more than you can afford to lose
  • Chasing losses with bigger bets

🧮 Quick Math Reference​

Calculating Maximum Bets​

Max Bets = Creator Stake ÷ (Odds - 1)

Examples:
- 100 BNB at 2.0x odds = 100 ÷ 1 = 100 BNB max bets
- 100 BNB at 3.0x odds = 100 ÷ 2 = 50 BNB max bets  
- 100 BNB at 5.0x odds = 100 ÷ 4 = 25 BNB max bets

Calculating Payouts​

Bettor Payout = Bet Amount × Odds (minus platform fee)
Creator Share = Original Stake + (Lost Bets × Share Percentage)

Share Percentage = Your Stake ÷ Total Creator Side Stake

💡 Pro Tips​

For New Users​

  1. Start small: Begin with 10-20 BNB pools to learn the mechanics
  2. Watch others: Observe successful creators' strategies
  3. Focus on familiar areas: Bet on sports/topics you understand
  4. Read the odds: Higher odds mean creator is very confident

For Experienced Users​

  1. Diversify: Create multiple smaller pools rather than one large pool
  2. Track record matters: Build reputation for attracting more bettors
  3. Time your entries: Early bets often get better effective odds
  4. Use combos wisely: Multi-condition pools are high risk/reward

Remember: In Predinex, successful contrarians make money by being right about what WON'T happen, while smart bettors profit by spotting when contrarians are wrong.